Scenario analyses

It is technically feasible to construct an energy system that is not based on coal, oil and natural gas. This has been demonstrated in several reports analysing the technical and economic feasibility of an energy supply system independent of fossil fuels in the long term, depending on the choice of green energy system

Long-term planning and scenario analyses in the energy sector is an integrated part of the ‘Danish model’, and provides a solid base for discussing technical and economic solutions for integrating  large shares of renewable energy.

A holistic tool

Model based scenarios should not be seen as forecasts, but rather as narratives of politics, technology and economy to show challenges and possibilities from different pathways. Traditionally, every energy subsector, such as the electricity sector, has specific tools for calculating scenarios. Recognizing the connections between the energy subsectors is essential in making the energy transition. DEA notices the importance of developing holistic models in which the energy sectors can be optimized concurrently. In DEA’s cooperation with various emerging economies it has proven useful to integrate all energy sectors in the scenario analyses, with comprehensive tools for long-term policy-making on development of energy systems as outcome. 

Read the brochure Long Term Planning for a Greener Future

Niels Bisgaard Pedersen
Advisor Centre for System Analysis, Energy Efficiency and Global Cooperation (+45) 2339 3666