China: Danish low-carbon scenarios model for Chinese 2050 scenarios

High share of renewable energy and focus on CO2-reduction. These are the main drivers for an ambitious scenario study launched by the Chinese National Renewable Energy Centre (CNREC) and the Danish Energy Agency.

The set-up and methodology of the scenario analysis is inspired by the work of the Danish Climate Commissions and experiences from this work is currently being transferred to the Chinese experts in CNREC.

The CNREC-DEA scenario study looks at possible development in deployment of renewable energy in China to 2050. Both the result of the current ambition-level and more ambitious scenarios with very high share of renewables are being analysed. The scenarios comprise technical and economic assessments and comparisons between the different scenarios, and also the integration of the fluctuating wind power and solar power is being assessed in order to make the scenarios feasible. It is challenging to increase the share of renewable with a continuing growth in the energy demand in China, but the drives for such an effort are also h2: reduction of global and local pollution, strengthening the security of supply and strengthen of the Chinese RE industry which has been selected as one of the strategic emerging industries in the last five-year plans.  

The preliminary results of the study will be ready in spring 2013, and the final findings of the study will be ready mid-2013. The results of the study may be used in a second phase, where data input and calculation and optimization methods are refined and carried out in more detail.

The scenario analyses are part of establishing a h2 analytic platform within CNREC, which enables the centre to deliver high quality policy research to the Chinese policy makers.

Niels Bisgaard Pedersen
Center for Global Rådgivning og Forhandling
Tlf.: 23 39 36 66


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