Danish climate and energy outlook

Baseline Projections

In the Baseline Projections energy consumption and production as well as greenhouse gas emissions on the basis of already decided politics is calculated.

The Baseline Projections are based on a number of assumptions and conditions, e.g. regarding costs and performance of energy technologies, expectations of fuel price developments, tax levels, expected economic growth, etc. The Baseline Projections do not include new policy, an approach often referred to as frozen policy. The actual development will be affected when new politics is introduced. A Baseline Projection is therefore not to be regarded as a prognosis but rather as a development that from the given conditions define the challenges the future energy policy must overcome.

Projections of this kind will always be subject to many central and uncertain assumptions and a different development in underlying drivers than what is assumed will therefore change the results in another direction than what the projections present.

Baseline Projections 2017

The Danish Energy Agency has created new Baseline Projection scenario that show a development assuming that decided politics is implemented but with no further political instruments.

The projections consists of a main report (in English) and a  background report (in Danish only) with descriptions of method, assumption and results.

The main report can be found here: Danish Energy and Climate Outlook

Memo on new estimate of non-ETS deficit for the period 2021 to 2030

The background reports (in Danish only) can be found here

There are two different ways to assess the results of the Baseline Projections: the Danish method and the international method. The existence of two different forms is caused by the Danish obligation to reduce the overall greenhouse gas emissions measured as CO2-equivalents.

This includes CO2 from the final fuel consumption stated as the fuels sold in Denmark.

The UNFCCC-format differs from the national method by including border trade, but not international aviation. Furthermore, flaring is included in the international method.

In the national method private manufacturers are included as a separate item under electricity & district heating, while private manufactures in the international method are included as a part of final energy consumption under the respective industries. This does not include waste which is accounted for in decentralized plants.